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New Yorkers will discover who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who governs and defends the nation's most populous metropolis at a time when Donald Trump has vowed to send military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The election has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have significant consequences for how the party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has brought global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and corporations.

As the election approaches, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of economic justice and promised to halt rent increases for about 2 million city residents, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has criticized Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that featured a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be key to the path that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

National Implications

If the progressive wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be hard for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, achieve a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the current iteration of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the stakes against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where the candidate asserted New York “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom last week, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and warned to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in truth, barely anyone even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the contest in March 2025 and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held every edge. The quintessential establishment figure, he had married a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – offer a brighter outlook of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has faced some challenges in the final phase, after footage emerged suggesting him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your throat, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America convention in 2023. The progressive, a longtime critic of Israel who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning joint training exercises between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, Mamdani remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their full identities, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd