A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
